El Padre's 2013 MLB Predictions Sure to Go Wrong

The title says it all. I am by any means, a gambler. I do bet from time to time, but most small amounts and usually only on NFL games. I have made pretty bold predictions in the past regarding Major League Baseball. 95% have been a failure. So why should this year be any different? Please use this as humor and not as a betting platform. I don't want anyone coming after me when they lose exuberant amounts of money because they bet on what I post below. The division winners are in bold type, with the wild card teams immediately following them.

*FYI, I did post these on Twitter on March 29th

National League
Washington Nationals                                                       
Cincinnati Reds
San Francisco Giants
Atlanta Braves
Los Angeles Dodgers

American League
Tampa Rays
Detroit Tigers
Los Angeles Angels (of Anaheim)
Toronto Blue Jays
Texas Rangers                                                                                          

World Series
Washington Nationals over Tampa Rays

NL MVP- Justin Upton, Atlanta Braves
AL MVP- Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers

NL CYA- Clayton Kershaw, LA Dodgers
AL CYA- David Price, Tampa Rays


I like the Oakland A's pitching staff. They are young, but it feels like they are established already. Their lineup will have a little more "pop" in it this year and I think they'll score more runs than we're used to seeing from them. They'll be a tough out in the AL West.

Everyone is jumping on the Royals' bandwagon. I'm not. Yes, James Shields will command the pitchers behind him to perform better. But I'm not sold on Wade Davis moving back into a starters role; nor do I like Ervin Santana as a number 2 SP. I think the White Sox will be in the playoff hunt again. But like last year, I think they'll again fall a few games short.

If you look at who I have in the playoffs (less the Reds and Rangers), these teams have some of the best pitching rotations in all of baseball. That is what it's going to take to get to October in 2013. Pitching. The Rays and Nationals may have the best rotations top to bottom in their respected leagues, hence I have them meeting each other in the World Series.

*Side Bet: I bet a friend (I know, I said I don't bet - very often) that the New York Metropolitans will finish the season with a better record than cross-town dummies, the New York Yankees. Here's hoping.

Sandman's Last Grain

Mariano Rivera, to me, should be a first ballot Hall of Fame inductee. As he announces his plans today, to retire at the end of the upcoming season, I've heard many arguments for and against Rivera as a first ballot HOFer.

It's not the number of saves that impresses me. It's not the five World Series championship rings he wears. It's for one, what he did to the game of baseball. Mariano brought this culture to Major League Baseball of shortening a nine inning game. If that's possible. From the first time he took over as the Yankees full-time closer in 1997, he set a precedence that will never, in the rest of my lifetime, be the same. Whether it was a 1-run game or a blow out in which the Yankees' closer just needed innings, opposing teams knew that the game was over once Mo was toeing the rubber.

It's nearly impossible to think that a relief pitcher could change a baseball game. But if a Yankees opponent didn't have the lead going into the 9th inning, they were sure to lose. Mariano started his career as a middle reliever. In 1996, his first full season with New York, Rivera served as John Wetteland's setup guy. Wetteland signed with the Rangers as a free agent the following season, allowing the beginning of a historical career.

It's not only what Rivera did as a regular season closer. The most impressive resume in post season baseball history belongs to Mo. To put it mildly, the nickname "Mr. October" should really belong to Mariano Rivera. His post season stats speak for themselves. I'm not going to bore you with all of the numbers. But is is truly remarkable, how almost perfect Mariano was in October. Yes, there were a few glitches ('97 against the Indians, '01 against Arizona and '04 against the Red Sox). But given the amount of post season innings he's accumulated throughout his career, three bad innings is a drop in the bucket for him.

Think about it. Rivera has been nearly perfect for the entirety of his professional career. I don't care what position or what role he played, when a single team can rely on this one player to "finish" game in and game out, regular season or post, that says something special.

Rivera, to me, has been the most important piece to the Yankees' puzzle over the past fifteen years. Heck, of the original "Core 4" guys, (Jeter, Posada & Pettitte), I believe he's been the most influential reason for New York's five World Series titles. No, he's never been the captain; never been followed by paparazzi; never had the model girlfriends; never had the deserved attention as some of his teammates. But without Rivera and the dominance he commanded, the Yankees wouldn't have been the Yankees.

It'll be quite intriguing to see how the 2013 season plays for Mariano. I am not expecting much from the Yankees this year. I can't see a 30+ save season from Rivera. But I know regardless, that as the season winds down, Mariano is going to command the respect of opposing teams and fans alike, as I'm sure they be cheering the Sandman one last time.

The end of an era is upon us. No more "guaranteed" victories when the new closer steps on the mound next year for New York. No more Metallica playing on the stadium sound system in the ninth inning. The Sandman is coming down to his last few grains.

As a Mets fan, I can't say how much I've respected Rivera. He pure class.

If I could chance the Chinese calendar, I'd make this the year of the Sandman!

G.O.A.T. (Greatest Owner of All-Time)

With the passing of former Lakers owner Jerry Buss last week, there has been a lot of talk, if he is the best owner in our lifetime. After hearing the arguments regarding owners like George Steinbrenner, the Rooney family and Eddie DeBartolo Jr, I'd have to agree that Buss is indeed, the G.O.A.T.

Buss bought the Los Angeles Lakers in 1979. In his 34 years as the Lakers' top brass, Buss's Lakers went to 16 NBA Finals. That is almost half of the Finals in his tenure as owner. Of those 16, the Lakers won ten of them.

Buss was known for creating the "Show-time Lakers", bringing in stars such as Magic Johnson, Kareem Abdul-Jabber, James Worthy, Kobe Bryant, Shaquille O'Neal and Pau Gasol. He also employed HOF coaches Pat Riley and Phil Jackson.

If you look at what other top name, winning owners have done, whether it has been in the past 30 years or the past century of American sports, Buss has to be number one as far as being one of the most successful owners.

On a side note, Buss also purchased WNBA team, Los Angeles Sparks. Under his ownership, the Sparks won two WNBA titles.

It's extremely difficult to argue against Jerry Buss as being the greatest owner. The number of titles, premier athletes and multiple other accomplishments says it all.

Who do you think is the greatest, most accomplished owner of an American sports franchise?

Lakers, 49ers, Yankees, Steelers, Sparks, WNBA

Been Way Too Long!

Time to start blogging again. I've changed the page up a bit. Deleted a few pictures; got rid of the ads; added a NJ Devils theme to it.

My sincere apologies for being away for God knows how long (just look at the last post's date stamp). I feel distant from the blogging world. Now that the Super Bowl is here, baseball's around the corner and March Madness is a month away, the fun is about to begin.

Please check in every once-in-a-while and I'll have some good posts for you.

Peace

Eli v. Romo - "The Great Debate"

Every football fan wants to support their team's star players. Every football fan wants to boast about how their QB is better than your QB (or RB or WR or whatever position). So, it came to no ones surprise that there was a fire storm of negativity towards New York Giants former star receiver Amani Toomer, when he said on Sirius/XM NFL radio that he'd take Tony Romo over Eli Manning to start a team with.

Dallas Cowboys fans rejoiced (though still knowing that Eli is a 2X Super Bowl champion and MVP) and Giants fans took to social media lash out at the "once" beloved NYG star.

My first reaction (as a Giants fan), after hearing the entire broadcast of Amani, was that I agreed with him. Let me say for the record, that I live in the Dallas Metroplex area and watch every Cowboys game AND every Giants game. I have for seven football seasons now. Let me also say, that I haven't been Eli's biggest supporter either. This debate is kind of funny to me. Because living where I live, my friends, most of which are Cowboys fans, always tell me they'd rather have Eli over Tony Romo. On the contrary, I have always told them that I'd rather have Romo over Eli. Toomer is absolutely correct in pointing out stats. It what he has to do. Many fans, as well as talk show host, base opinions on initial reaction. I am guilty as most of you are too. But seriously look at every regular season number, and Romo has Eli beat. I'm talking TDs, INTs, Comp% and yes, 4th quarter efficiency. Throughout their careers, Romo has had better 4th quarters.

What makes Eli Manning special and probably better overall, is what he has done in the post season. We all know what he's done and his stats, so I'm not even going to get into it. Eli's post season numbers DO speak for themselves.

There is a factor though that I don't hear anyone talking about. That is how the Giants as a team, all of a sudden can turn on a switch and dominate a Super Bowl run. En-route to wins in Super Bowls 42 and 46, the Giants defense played an enormous roll in both of those runs. Especially last year. In 2011, the Giants defense ranked 27th in YPG (376) and 25th in PPG (25). Defensively, they were abysmal to watch. The defense couldn't stop anyone on 3rd down, and opponents consistently were able to go deep on the Giants secondary. In the post season however, the Giants posted the 3rd best YPG (328) and were number 1 in PPG (14).

Also, the postseason overall body of work heavily favors Manning. Tony has played in only three post season games, compared to Eli's eleven. Less we not forget, Eli hasn't won a playoff game outside of the Super Bowl years. He and the Giants are 0-3, getting outscored 69-31.

So you have to look at the QB comparisons with a grain of salt, and be honest with yourself. The rhetorical question: Would Tony Romo have at least two Super Bowls rings if he were the QB for the NY Giants?


Listen, Eli did show great improvement last year. He DID have a tremendous season. It was by far, his personal best as a quarterback for the New York Football Giants. But there is still some doubt, in my mind, whether or not he can have a repeat performance in the 2012 season. He's already proven to be inconsistent from a year-to-year basis.

We're all entitled to our own opinions. Amani was giving us his when he was asked the question. It's actually refreshing in way to hear a former player-turned analyst to go against the norm. Most would support their former teammates. Is that what we want? Do we want analysts who are homers? Who tell you what YOU want to hear? This is what makes sports debates exciting. It gets our blood flowing, our faces red with anguish and our pride flying high.

New York Giants, Dallas Cowboys

HI57ORY

Not a bad post for my first one in almost two months....

Where I live, watching a New York Metropolitans game is a rare feat. Usually, I can only watch when they are on ESPN or FOX's Saturday game of the week. Occasionally though, I will purchase a single game on MLB.com. Last night, well, was worth every dollar I spent. I, along with thousands of Metropolitans fans, witnessed one of the most single greatest feats in Mets history. Or as the post title reads (no, not original), "HI57ORY". #57 of the Mets, Johan Santana, threw the Mets' first franchise no-hitter, in what was the 8,020th game in the 51 year history.

I don't believe in a jinx, nor am I superstitious. I was tweeting and texting about the no-hitter attempt from the 7th inning, on. It was either going to happen, or it wasn't. Nothing I did or didn't do in that time frame was going to matter. In the 7th, after the crashing-in-the-wall catch by left fielder Mike Baxter (who left the game with a shoulder injury as a result), I tweeted this, "Santana will get the #Mets 1st no-hitter tonight. It's inevitable after Baxter's catch."

I couldn't have been more correct, though Twitter was full of Mets fans who didn't want to change a thing about what they were doing, whether it was the position they were sitting in, the way they were breathing or what they were eating at the time.

The aftermath of what I witnessed was simply amazing. After watching Super Bowl championships by the Giants, or watching the Devils advance to the Stanley Cup Finals, you'd think that this would pale in comparison. But I'm wrong. The way I felt after Santana struck out Freese to end the game was a feeling of childish excitement. I had goose bumps. I was emotional.

All I want to say is, congratulations to Johan Santana and every mets fan walking the planet today. It was well worth the wait for an accomplishment of this magnitude. And no, I'm not letting any of the game's controversy ruin what I was able to watch. It's been quite a while that Mets fans can be excited about this team. Although the Metropolitans are exceeding expectations this year, with a 29-23 record on what is now June 2nd, last night's game is going to be forever instilled in every fan, forever.

*Image courtesy of Mets.com

MLB Weekly Wrap-up

As a true, yet beleaguered Metropolitans fan, I am once again not shocked that a former Mets pitcher threw a no-hitter. Or in Philip Humber's case, a perfect game. I have seen this story before. And frankly, I'm over it. Humber became the sixth former Mets pitcher to toss a no-hitter/perfect game, when on Saturday, he threw 96 pitches in route to a 27 up, 27 down perfect performance against Seattle. In case you were wondering, the other six were: Nolan Ryan, Tome Seaver, Mike Scott, David Cone, Dwight Gooden and Hideo Nomo. It should be noted that, Nomo threw a no-hitter before becoming a Met and then again after he left the Mets. Still 50 years and counting for Mets' fans......

The Boston Red Sox celebrated the 100th anniversary (birthday) of Fenway Park this past Friday. I'll give you one guess how that went. On Friday, the Yankees, like they have done over and over in the past 100 years, beat the Sox 6-2. Wasn't anything for the dramatic, but you could probably see it coming. Saturday was really special though. After spotting the Red Sox a 9-0 lead, New York put together back-to-back 7-run innings in the 7th and 8th to beat Boston 15-9. Talk about the phrase, "who's your daddy?"

I for one, counted the Texas Rangers out this year. Now, I'm not saying that they'd be awful, just that they wouldn't make the playoffs. There were too many pitching concerns. Injuries always seem to take there affect on players like Hamilton, Cruz and Beltre. With this said, through 16 games, the Rangers are tearing it up! I like what I have seen from Matt Harrison and Derek Holland. Oh yea, there's a guy by the name of Yu Darvish also. The Rangers will always hit and produce a ton of offense, but their starters have put up some really decent numbers in the first three weeks. The starters have the best record (10-1) in baseball, are 3rd in the Majors in ERA (2.54), they are 5th in BAA (.219), and are 3rd in IP (106.1). Those are outstanding stats for a team not known for pitching. I'm here to tell you now, I may have to eat crow on Texas. Even when Pujols breaks from his season long swoon, I can't see the Angels making up seven games. I know, I know....it's still early.

Staying with the Rangers, it was fitting that Ivan Rodriguez announced his retirement today, at The Ballpark in Arlington. Pudge spent 12 full and part of a 13th season, as the Rangers' backstop. The numbers and accolades are countless. The first ballot HOFer will go in as a member of the Rangers.

Studs:


1. Philip Humber (Chi-A-) 2 GS, 14.1 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 16 K, 1 Perfect Game, 1 W
2. Mike Napoli (TX) - 25 AB, 11 H, 7 R, 5 HR, 10 RBI, .440 AVG
3. Freddie Freeman (Atl) - 23 AB, 11 H, 7 R, 3 HR, 14 RBI, .478 AVG


Duds:


1. Mark Reynolds (Bal) - 23 AB, 2 H, 1 R, 1 RBI, 11 K, .187 AVG
2. Justin Masterson (Cle) - 2 GS, 8.2 IP, 13 H, 10 BB, 12 ER, .351 BAA, 1 L
3. Francisco Liriano (Min) - 2 GS, 7.1 IP, 10 H, 8 BB, 10 ER, .357 BAA, 2 L

Notable pitching matchups for week 4/23 - 4/29 (4/23) Sabathia (NYY) vs Holland (TX), Peavy (Chi-A) vs Colon (Oak) (4/24) Johnson (Fla) vs Santana (NYM) (4/25) Wilson (LAA) vs Hellickson (TB) (4/27) Shields (TB) vs Harrison  (TX)